Can Hopes Be Rational Expectations?
Jacek JAŚTAL
College of Social Sciences, Kraków University of Technology , Polandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2105-2841
Abstract
Hope is generally regarded as an irrational basis for decision-making. To evaluate whether this belief is justified, the author begins by clarifying the concept of hope. Hope is understood as a form of expectation concerning goods or outcomes significant to the agent, where the probability of success is low or indeterminate, the agent’s influence over events is minimum, and strong desires and emotions lead to an exclusive focus on positive scenarios. The author proceeds to examine the role of expectations in decision-making, emphasizing their capacity to generate well-justified (within the framework of approximate rationality) and flexible action scenarios that can be easily adapted as situations evolve. In certain extreme cases, particularly when basic goods are threatened and the individual cannot ascertain the processes at play or their likelihood, meeting the typical rationality criteria may be impossible. In such circumstances, relying on highly optimistic scenarios can be rational due to their potential to elicit strong emotions and, consequently, greater motivational power. The rationality of hope depends on three conditions: first, the correct belief of the agent that the requirements of rational decision-making cannot be adequately met; second, the acceptance of risks associated with adopting overly optimistic scenarios; and third, possession of a well-formed cognitive-affective disposition, which may be seen as a virtue of hope in the sense of Aristotelian practical ethics.
Keywords:
hope, bounded rationality, decision theoryReferences
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College of Social Sciences, Kraków University of Technology https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2105-2841
