Prediction of global sugar prices after abolition of EU sugar quotas
Anna Budzyńska
The Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin , Polandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6959-0585
Mirosław Piotr Urbanek
The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin , Polandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9545-6921
Abstract
In the article two main goals were indicated. The first is to verify the hypothesis that there is not a relevant relationship between limiting the impact of state intervention mechanisms and sugar prices on world exchanges. The second goal is to choose the best model for forecasting sugar prices after the abolition of the sugar quotas on domestic markets of sugar producers. The starting point for building the model was the time series of sugar prices on a monthly basis on world stock exchanges – London and New York in 1990–2020. One of the three models was used for forecasting. Sugar prices on world stock exchanges showed large fluctuations amounting to USD cents 28 per pound of sugar for white sugar, while for raw sugar the figure was slightly lower and reached USD cents 26 per pound. On average, in 1990–2020, the nominal price for white sugar was 16 cents per pound, and for raw sugar -12 cents per pounds. However, the level of sugar prices in the world is determined primarily by market factors, rather than administrative constraints.
Keywords:
Forecasting, time series, prices, sugar marketReferences
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The Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6959-0585
The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9545-6921
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
