Macroeconomic Evaluation of Poland in the Ranking of European Union Countries in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Abstract
The main purpose of the article is to assess the macroeconomic situation in Poland in the ranking of European Union countries in the face of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. For research purposes, including the preparation of the ranking, a multi-factor, comprehensive index of macroeconomic condition (IMC) in various variants was proposed. The basis for the construction of the measure is the misery index. In this case, its methodology has been extended and qualitatively adjusted to make it more adequate to contemporary global economic conditions. The spatial scope of the study covers 27 current EU Member States, with particular emphasis on Poland. The time scope mainly concerns 2020. For comparative purposes, the period of several previous years is also taken into account.
The study consists of three main parts. The first provides an outline of the discussion on the indicator-based macroeconomic assessment of the economy. In particular, reference was made to synthetic measures, including the aforementioned misery index. The second part of the study presents the research methodology based on a modified version of misery index and using the multivariate comparative analysis (MCA) tool. Consequently, several variants of IMC were constructed. In the third part, the Polish economy was assessed against the background of the European Union countries with the use of the developed analysis tool.
The research results indicate that the macroeconomic condition of all EU countries in 2020 deteriorated compared to the previous year. Some countries have felt the macroeconomic effects of the coronavirus more negatively than others. Against this background, Poland fares better than the EU27 average. It is, inter alia, due to the expansive economic policy (fiscal and monetary) conducted at that time. Although the anti-crisis economic policy is positively assessed from the current short-term perspective, one should be aware that the economic effects of the coronavirus itself, as well as the highly expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, will have long-term consequences. The challenge of the economic authorities will be to skillfully plan actions in the long term as part of the stabilization and post-crisis policy.
Keywords:
Synthetic measures of the socio-economic situation, indicators of macroeconomic condition, macroeconomic assessment of European Union countriesReferences
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