Addressing the Declining Water Level of the Caspian Sea from a Legal Perspective and a Proposal for a New Agreement
Abstrakt
The Caspian Sea is currently experiencing a rapid decline in water levels, with a 46% reduction in water-covered area between 2001 and 2024. Considering the environmental and socio-economic impacts of the problem, legal responses remain fragmented. This article examines existing legal frameworks to determine why current instruments fail to mitigate the problem of water-level decline. This study employs a doctrinal and comparative legal analysis of the domestic legislations of the five Caspian littoral states, alongside a review of existing international agreements. The analysis reveals that current instruments are insufficient. Domestic legislation of the Caspian littoral states remains uneven and fragmented. Kazakhstan’s Ecological Code serves as a notable model for integrating climate regulation and the response to the decline in water levels in the Caspian Sea into national legislation. While international agreements, such as the Tehran Convention, establish general cooperation principles, they lack binding rules for coordinated river-basin management and climate adaptation. Highlighting a recent surge in regional political will, this paper proposes a new agreement. The proposed agreement introduces binding obligations for reservoir release regimes, minimum environmental flows, and a permanent basin regulatory body. By shifting from ad hoc diplomacy to an integrated legal instrument, the proposal provides a plan for ensuring the socio-economic and environmental security of the Caspian region.
Słowa kluczowe:
Caspian Sea, water level management, water level decline, environmental law, legal responseOświadczenie o wykorzystaniu AI:
Proofing spellingBibliografia
Alimusayev, Emin. “Analysis of Legal Challenges in Climate Regulation of Azerbaijan and Proposal for Climate Law.” Law. Human. Environment 16, no. 4 (2025): 42–58. https://doi.org/10.31548/law/4.2025.42.
Amangeldina, Aida. “The Caspian Sea is Under Threat of Desertification: What are the Causes and Consequences?.” Central Asia Climate Information Portal, November 12, 2024. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://centralasiaclimateportal.org/publications/the-caspian-sea-is-under-threat-of-desertification-what-are-the-causes-and-consequences.
Anisimova, Aleksey, Yulia Isakova, and Olga Volkonskaya. “Trends and Prospects for the Formation of a National Model of Climate Legislation (Using the Russian Federation as an Example).” Vniversitas Jurídica 74 (2025). https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.vj74.tpfn.
Black Sea Institute. “Aral Sea Syndrome: Why Is the Caspian Sea Shrinking?,” August 21, 2024. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://blacksealaw.org/aral-sea-syndrome-why-is-the-caspian-sea-shrinking/.
Chen, Jianli, Anny Cazenave, Song-Yun Wang, and Jin Li. “Caspian Sea Level Change Observed by Satellite Altimetry.” Remote Sensing 15, no. 3 (2023): 703. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15030703.
Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology and Pollution Monitoring of the Caspian Sea (CASPCOM). Information Bulletin on the State of the Caspian Sea Level No. 30. 2025. http://www.caspcom.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/CASPCOM-Bulletin-No.30.pdf.
Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology and Pollution Monitoring of the Caspian Sea (CASPCOM). Statute of the Coordinating Committee on Hydrometeorology and Pollution Monitoring of the Caspian Sea. 2025. http://www.caspcom.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Statute_CASPCOM_eng.pdf.
Court, Rebecca, et al. “Rapid Decline of Caspian Sea Level Threatens Ecosystem Integrity, Biodiversity Protection, and Human Infrastructure.” Communications Earth & Environment 6 (2025): 261. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5.
Duisembay, Aigerim. “How the Shallowing of the Caspian Sea Affects the Economy of Coastal Regions and Logistics.” Kazinform, January 7, 2026. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://www.inform.kz/ru/kak-obmelenie-kaspiya-vliyaet-na-ekonomiku-pribrezhnih-regionov-i-logistiku.
Ghahfarokhi, Mehri Shams, and Sogol Moradian. “Investigating the Causes of Lake Urmia Shrinkage: Climate Change or Anthropogenic Factors?.” Journal of Arid Land 15, no. 4 (2023): 424–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-023-0054-z.
Ibrayev, Rashit A., Emin Özsoy, Corinna Schrum, and H. İ. Sur. “Seasonal Variability of the Caspian Sea Three-Dimensional Circulation, Sea Level and Air-Sea Interaction.” Ocean Science 6, no. 1 (2010): 311–29. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-6-311-2010.
Kalikhan, Yerassyl. “Water Management in Kazakhstan: A Systems Approach for a Secure Future.” United Nations Development Programme, March 18, 2025. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://www.undp.org/kazakhstan/blog/water-management-kazakhstan-systems-approach-secure-future.
Kayvanfar, Kamyar. “Iran’s Water Crisis: Historical Roots, Ideological Dimensions and Policy Challenges.” ORF Middle East, November 12, 2025. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://orfme.org/expert-speak/irans-water-crisis-historical-roots-ideological-dimensions-and-policy-challenges/.
Kepbanov, Yolbars. Legal Protection of Climate in Turkmenistan: Assessment of the Current Situation and Development Prospects: Research Report in Sociology of Law, 2023:4. Lund: Lund University, 2023. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375923460.
Khalili, Ali. “Climate Changes and Iran’s 7th Development Plan at a Glance.” Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 11, no. 2 (2023): 1–3. https://doi.org/10.22125/agmj.2023.186488.
Koriche, Sifan A., Joy S. Singarayer, Hannah L. Cloke, Paul J. Valdes, Frank P. Wesselingh, Salomon B. Kroonenberg, Andrew D. Wickert, and Tamara A. Yanina. “What Are the Drivers of Caspian Sea Level Variation during the Late Quaternary?,” Quaternary Science Reviews 283 (2022): 107457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107457.
Labardini, Rodrigo, and Nazrin Baghirova. Desiccation in the Caspian Sea: On the Need to Implement Domestic and Regional Countermeasures. Analytical Policy Brief. Baku: Institute for Development and Diplomacy, 2023. https://idd.az/media/2024/01/12/idd_policy_brief_-_labardini-baghirova_22_december.pdf?v=1.1.
Lahijani, Hamid, Suzanne A.G. Leroy, Klaus Arpe, and Jean-François Crétaux. “Caspian Sea Level Changes during Instrumental Period, Its Impact and Forecast: A Review.” Earth-Science Reviews 241 (2023): 104428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104428.
Micklin, Philip. “The Aral Sea Disaster.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 35 (2007): 47–72. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140120.
Mislimshoeva, Bunafsha, Gulbahar Abdurasulova, Jonathan Walsh, and Jochen Statz. Institutional Analysis of the Current National System and Processes Related to Climate Change in Turkmenistan. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2021. https://napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/napgn_en_2021_institutional-analysis-of-the-current-national-system-and-processes-related-to-climate-change-in-turkmenistan.pdf.
Mitchell, Sara M., and Neda A. Zawahri. “The Effectiveness of Treaty Design in Addressing Water Disputes.” Journal of Peace Research 52, no. 2 (2015): 187–200. https://doi.org/¬ 10.1177/¬ 0022343314559623.
Moiseev, Timofey D., and Sofia T. Garipova. “Water Use and Ecosystem Services: A Case of Russia.” Environmental Dynamics and Global Climate Change 13, no. 2 (2022): 60–69. https://doi.org/10.18822/edgcc105930.
Mustard, Allan, Aizhan Abilgazina, and Akbota Karibayeva. The Silent Threat of Falling Caspian Sea Levels: A Caspian Policy Center Policy Brief. Washington, DC: Caspian Policy Center, 2021. https://api.caspianpolicy.org/media/ckeditor_media/2021/11/04/the-silent-threat-of-falling-caspian-sea-levels.pdf.
Pietkiewicz, Michał. “Legal Status of Caspian Sea – Problem Solved?.” Marine Policy 123 (2020): 104321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104321.
Poberezhskaya, Marianna, and Ellie Martus. “Climate Obstruction in Russia: Surviving a Resource-Dependent Economy, an Authoritarian Regime, and a Disappearing Civil Society.” In Climate Obstruction across Europe, edited by Robert J. Brulle, J. Timmons Roberts, and Miranda C. Spencer, 214–42. New York: Oxford University Press, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197762042.003.0009.
Safarov, Elnur, Emil Bayramov, Said Safarov, Jessica Neafie, and Alexandre Hedjazi. “Impact of Changes in the Wind Regime on the Caspian Sea Level Fluctuation and Its Relationship with SOI and NAO.” Scientific Reports 15 (2025): 36380. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-20346-6.
Safarov, Elnur, Said Safarov, and Emil Bayramov. “Changes in the Hydrological Regime of the Volga River and Their Influence on Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations.” Water 16, no. 12 (2024): 1744. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16121744.
Samant, Rohit, and Matthias Prange. “Climate-Driven 21st Century Caspian Sea Level Decline Estimated from CMIP6 Projections.” Communications Earth & Environment 4, no. 1 (2023): 297. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01017-8.
Shokri, Umud. “Caspian Sea Decline Harms Iran and Raises Regional Tensions.” Stimson Center, November 7, 2025. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://www.stimson.org/2025/caspian-sea-decline-harms-iran-and-raises-regional-tensions/.
Sivakov, Dmitry O., Viacheslav V. Sevalnev, and Yuri V. Truntsevsky. “Use and Protection of Water Bodies: Corruption Cases.” E3S Web of Conferences 203 (2020): 02016. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020302016.
Sopykhanova, Assel, Almkhan Maytanov, Alla Kiseleva, and Roza Zhamiyeva. “Problems of Legal Regulation and State Policy Measures Related to Nature Management in the Framework of Achieving the SDGs: Examples from Russia and Kazakhstan.” Sustainability 15, no. 2 (2023): 1042. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021042.
State News Agency of Turkmenistan. “Presentation of the Draft Law ‘On Climate Change’ Was Held in Ashgabat.” Turkmenistan: Golden Age, June 6, 2024. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://aarhusash-gabat.org/blog/v-ashhabade-sostoyalas-prezentacziya-zakonoproekta-ob-izmenenii-klimata/.
Uchet.kz. “New Water Code Entered into Force.” June 10, 2025. Accessed March 19, 2026. https://uchet.kz/news/novyy-vodnyy-kodeks-vstupil-v-silu/.
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. Progress on Transboundary Water Cooperation under the Water Convention: Third Report on Implementation. 2024. https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2024-12/2417627_E_PDF_WEB.pdf.
United Nations Environment Programme. “Caspian Sea Fluctuations and Climate Change.” Working Paper, UNEP DHI Partnership, Nairobi, 2024. https://unepdhi.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/11/Caspian_Sea_working_paper.pdf.
Venitsianov, Yevgeniy V. “Modern Problems of Water Protection in Russia.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 321 (2019): 012033. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/321/1/012033.
Voynova, Maria V. “Main Stages of Developing Environmental Legislation of Islamic Republic of Iran on Environmental Protection of Caspian Sea.” Oil and Gas Technologies and Environmental Safety 2 (2023): 69–82. https://doi.org/10.24143/1812-9498-2023-2-69-82.
Zhavoronkova, Natalia G., and Vyacheslav B. Agafonov. “The Role of National Climate Law in Ensuring the ‘Energy Transition’.” Lex Russica 17, no. 2 (2022): 151–62. https://doi.org/10.17803/1994-1471.2022.135.2.151-162.
Ziganshina, Dinara R. “Institutional Mechanisms for Preventing and Resolving Cross-Border Water Disputes.” AJIL Unbound 115 (2021): 195–200. https://doi.org/10.1017/aju.2021.20.
Baku State University https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2300-0690
